Personally Arod is my guy. You have Arod at 492 having hit his 27th HR of the season tonight against the Mets. Arod currently ranks 24th all-time but in my opinion probably has the best foreseeable chance to surpass Bonds of all current players. He is 32 years-old right now and if you disregard this year's 27 HRs he needs 8 seasons with a rough average of 36 dingers a season. Now I think it will take him even less than that because he is obviously going to hi more than 36 this year. So, really at the most I think he would have to play until he was 40. If he can stay healthy and stay with the Yanks so he can DH as he gets older I think he can do it.
This is so sick and perverted but I'm going to have to start
cheering for a Yankee...
Arod no less. I've always thought of him as a bit of a sell-out (think of him going to Texas completely for the $$) and is now noticed as a cheating bastard. However, I think he's my guy. Now, I'm not by any means going to go get myself an
Arod jersey. I'm just rooting for him to bring Major League Baseball -along with myself- out of a state of misery as fast as he can.
My second choice is Albert Pujols. He's only got 266 right now but is only 27. If he can continue to hit his average of 42 HRs a year he could be at 770 when he is 39. So he's got a good shot, but I'm still taking Arod over him. Some goes for him. If he can get away from the Cardinals and onto a team where he can do some DHing down the road that will increase his chances as well.
Active players ranked above Arod in HRs are Sammy Sosa, Frank Thomas, and Ken Griffey Jr. In my opinion both are just way too old to be considered a serious threat to surpass Bonds someday. No way for those 3.
Also, guys who I think can be overlooked include , Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Gary Sheffield, and Chipper Jones. Manny is ranked 25th with 480 but is 3 years older than A-Rod so he's not my pick....plus he doesn't even care. Basically the lowdown on everybody else is that I think they are just too old. They are high on the list but there's just no way they can play long enough with their production to be seriously considered.
If I wouldn't take Arod or Pujols I would rather take my chance with a young kid like Prince Fielder or Miguel Cabrera. They are so young though that it is just a real risky pick. There are too many intangibles to consider to try and accurately project if and when they could be in position to pass Bonds.
My Picks
1. Arod
2. Pujols
3. Someone young like Prince Fielder or Miguel Cabrera
Agree with my Picks? Who is your pick to surpass Bonds on the all-time HR list (however many that may end up being)?
I would like to quickly offer you my predictions for tonight's State Farm Home Run Derby before I head off to Ming's to watch. Obviously I'll be cheering for Prince hardcore tonight but he's not my pick to win it. I know there are a lot of really great lefties (Prince included) who are going to be making a few splashes out towards right. However, I'm going to go against my heart, and against the grain and go with a gut shot in saying that I think Albert Pujols will win the Derby this year.
