2009 AFC Championship Preview/Prediction

Now that the college football season is done we can all focus on the NFL and the conference championship showdowns this weekend. Is it us or has defense been the theme of these playoffs? Pittsburgh and Baltimore (division foes) will square off in Pittsburgh for the passage to the Super Bowl (and a Browns fan's worst nightmare). While the Arizona Cardinals will host the Philadelphia Eagles for the NFC’s spot in the big game. I will preview the AFC Championship while Stefan handles the NFC and his beloved Eagles.

The Steelers are a very well coached team that has play makers on each side of the ball and Vegas has them as the favorite here. The Ravens, on the other hand, have reached this round of the playoffs with a rookie QB from a FCS (Football Championship Series) school, Delaware, and a rookie coach. The Ravens offense last year average 17.2 ppg and 302 ypg, which landed them with the 22nd best offense in the league. They moved up to #18 this year scoring 24.1 ppg while producing 324 ypg. The Steelers rank 22nd in offense this year scoring 21.7 ppg and racking up 347 ypg.

However, offense is not going to be the story here. Defense is how each of these teams succeeded this year and its what will win on Sunday. The Steelers and Ravens are the top 2 defenses in the league giving up 13.9 ppg and 223 ypg and 15.2 ppg and 244 ypg, respectively. The Steelers won both matchups this year by a combined 7 points. This is a tough game to call but Baltimore will ultimately win, I just feel it.

I expect both teams to be able to establish the run on each other and the difference maker will be on defense. Look for guys like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed to win this game for the Ravens by pressuring Big Ben on D, getting some big hits in, and creating turnovers while Joe Flacco does just enough to win the game. It will be a great game to watch as there is snow in the forecast with a high of 27 and I love me a good defensive struggle. I say Ravens and Eagles in the Superbowl. But we'll just have to see what Stefan says about that!

Prediction: Ravens 17 Steelers 13

AFC Divisional-Round Playoff Predictions

Pittsburgh Steelers over the San Diego Chargers

I don't like doing this because when it comes to predicting the NFL playoffs I go by which team is hottest. It's also worth mentioning the last 3 SB winners have come from wildcard weekend. This is going to be a great game no matter what. The Chargers are hot right now without question. But, with an injured LT things become questionable. Darren Sproles carried the work load and did a magnificent job of it against the Colts, but it will be another challenge entirely to do it against the Steelers and the leagues best defense. The weather looks to be in the high teens and snowing, playing into the Steelers favor. The Chargers will make it a game no doubt. But I think the Steelers are just the better team, and will (hopefully) play like such but I'm not overly confident.

Steelers-17, Chargers-13

Baltimore Ravens over the Tennessee Titans

The Ravens are red hot right now and Joe Flacco's got me thinking about the year when the Steelers won the Super Bowl with Roethlisberger at the helm as a rookie. I feel like the extra time off hurts the Titans here too especially how hot the Ravens are right now. The Ravens have the D to shut down the run and make Collins beat them with the pass. Kerry Collins might be old but if forced to he can still beat teams....just not the Ravens. Flacco is plenty good enough to take advantage of the field position given to him by his D and gets some help along the way. I forsee a very defensive game.

Ravens-10 Titans-6

2008 NFL Preview - AFC North

1. Cleveland Browns (10-6 in 2007)
The Browns have more talent on both sides of the ball than any other team in the division, and a dominant offensive line - maybe the best in all of football. This will help Anderson (add Quinn in case he gets hurt) and running back Jamal Lewis replicate their 2007 success. They are explosive all the way around on offense and their defense has continued to improve. This put them just about on par with the Steelers talent-wise.

That - and the slightly easier schedule than Pittsburgh’s - will be enough to get Cleveland over the hump in ‘08. Although the Browns and Steelers have identical schedules, the x-factor will be their two games against the AFC East and West - Pittsburgh hosts San Diego and goes to New England while the Browns host Denver and travel to Buffalo. That’s a huge difference, and after a season where they got shut out of the postseason despite a 10-6 record, Cleveland might be able to ride that past the Steelers and to the AFC North title.

Key Additions: DT Shaun Rogers (trade, Detroit), DE Corey Williams (trade, Green Bay), WR Donte Stallworth (free agency, New England)

Key Losses: CB Leigh Bodden (trade, Detroit)

Predicted Finish: 10-6

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6 in 2007)

I feel like Mike Tomlin is going to have this squad just good enough to lose this tossup division. The Steelers will have a great 2back system with Mendenhall and Parker. Also Hines Ward will be good, but he'll be 32 years old this year! I'm not too worried because I think Limas Sweed and Santonio Holmes will be a great young tandem for years to come. Plus throw in Heath Miller at TE...this team will have the ability to outscore anyone in a shootout! That is if Big Ben survives. The offensive line is the biggest question mark for this team and if anything costs them talent-wise it will be the O-Line for sure. The D will be just a hair below what many would consider your standard Steelers D. Overall I think they have better all-around talent than the Browns. However their O-Line and schedule will be the reason why the Browns win the division.

Whatever struggles they have this year will have a lot more to do with their brutal schedule than the talent in Pittsburgh. Winning more than 9 games in a schedule that includes New England, San Diego, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Dallas, the Giants, and Philadelphia - as well as each division team twice - is asking way too much.

Key Additions: RB Rashard Mendenhall (first round pick, Illinois), WR Limas Sweed (second round pick, Texas)

Key Losses: OG Alan Faneca (free agency, New York Jets), DB Al Rossum (released, San Francisco), FB Dan Kreider (free agency, St. Louis), LB Clark Haggans (free agency, Arizona)

Predicted Finish: 9-7 wildcard playoff birth

3. Cincinatti Bengals (7-9 in 2007)

The Bengals have replaced the Ravens as the league’s biggest outlaws, and the number of legal issues facing this team has overshadowed on-field expectations. On top of that, the defense - even under defensive mastermind Marvin Lewis - is still subpar and not equipped to handle the better offenses in the league. The Bengals may have the offensive weapons to trump the Steelers and Browns, but can their own defense stop Cleveland’s offensive fireworks on the other side of the ball? As of now, the answer is no, and that could spell a long, frustrating season in Cincinnati.

Their D looks vulnerable to me (horrible tackling against GB in their 1st preseason game) and Rudi Gay is unable to carry the load anymore (although I think Chris Perry will come in and do a good job). The Chad Johnson thing is also pure chaos. Does he want to play on this team, or doesn't he? Seems like a locker room mess and major distraction. I mean come on! This guy asked his QB for help out of Cinci!

You know what they say about talent: “Hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard.” Cincinnati has Pro Bowl talent at a lot of key positions, but they’ve had that same talent the last several years. It hasn’t won them anything. I think they are an improved team by getting rid of the troublemakers. I also think that Ben Utech will make a huge difference for Palmer and their offense. I just don't think they can win. This really looks to be Cleveland's and/or Pittsburgh's year.

Key Additions: LB Keith Rivers (first round pick, USC), WR Jerome Simpson (second round pick, Coastal Carolina), DE Antwan Odom (free agency, Tennessee)

Key Losses: Madieu Williams (free agency, Minnesota), DE Justin Smith (free agency, San Francisco), LB Landon Johnson (free agency, Carolina), LB/DE David Pollack (paralysis injury, retired), WR Chris Henry (legal problems, released), LB Odell Thurman (violation of league substance abuse policy)

Predicted Finish: 7-9

4. Baltimore Ravens (5-11 in 2007)

The Ravens have history of sneaking up on the league and being competitive when nobody expects them to. They did it in 2002 after a salary cap purge decimated the core from their 2000 Super Bowl run, and that’s the only way they can do it in 2008.

The parade of Pro Bowlers this team enjoyed in the early part of this decade are either retired, in other uniforms, or on the downside of their careers. Ray Lewis is no longer the most feared defender in football, Jamal Lewis isn’t running for 2,000 yards, Jonathan Ogden isn’t manning the blind side for his quarterback, and Peter Boulware isn’t racking up sacks anymore. On top of that, the Ravens have never had stability at the most important position in football: The quarterback position. Banking on Flacco to bring that stability is reminiscent of when Kyle Boller was supposed to do the same, and we all know how that turned out.

Now, Troy Smith has been starting for them in the preseason to this point so maybe they'll try to start the year off with him and fall to Flacco when he struggles. Who knows really. Either way though I think this isn't going to work out for them this year. This team will be near the bottom in the NFL again giving GM Ozzie Newsome more to work with. This is a new coaching staff and young team that will have to start off by taking their lumps early and often.

Key Additions: Head coach John Harbaugh (DB coach, Philadelphia), QB Joe Flacco (first round pick, Delaware), RB Ray Rice (second round pick, Rutgers)

Key Losses: OL Jonathan Ogden (retirement), QB Steve McNair (retirement), C Mike Flynn (released)

Predicted Finish: 4-12

Forget it Vikings Fans

Please just stop Vikes fans. Brett Favre is not coming to your team. The Packers won't let him and even if he did, you guys wouldn't win the Super Bowl anyways.

He's not going to any NFC North team, period. The Packers will not do that to themselves. And there is no way he will grant a release from a team to get traded. Why would any team acquire him to release him? Come on people, let's use our heads.

Please Vikings fans, stop with the wishful thinking. Brett Favre is not going to be a Viking, so you can stop obsessing with it now. I am getting sick of it. Since I live in the heart of Viking nation it really gets annoying and old.

It's the same old rhetoric: "This is the Vikings year!" That's what you say every year. "The Vikings are winning the Super Bowl this year." When the Pope becomes Lutheran they will. "Brett Favre will be a Viking and we will win the Super Bowl." It just gets tiring.

It is most likely he will end up a Packer if he plays, mainly because of salary cap issues and the roster turnover that would be required by most teams to fit him under the cap.

If he end ups up anywhere else, three teams make the most sense right now: Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Carolina. You could argue the Jets, but I think they will stick with either Chad Pennington or Kellen Clemens.

Favre would be a great fit for the Bucs. They won the NFC South last season. They're loaded with talent and a good defense. They're already contenders. Favre knows Gruden well and he would just about put the Bucs over the top and make them a legit Super Bowl contender.

Kyle Boller just hasn't gotten it done for the Ravens lately and recent draftee Joe Flacco will need a few years to be a backup before he becomes a legit starter. Nothing better than getting Flacco ready and prepared behind one of the greats. Plus, the Ravens still have a good defense with Ray Lewis and one of the best secondaries in the league.

The Panthers need to win now. Jake Delhomme has suffered through many problems of his own and injuries. After underachieving over the years, the Panthers are desperate to win now. Plus, Favre would have targets Steve Smith, DJ Hackett, and Muhsin Muhammad to throw to.

So in the end, Favre will not end up on a NFL North squad, especially the Vikings. The Minnesota fans need to get over their own egos and realize "the answer" has still yet to come.

Thanks for a Reason to Care

Last Monday's game between the Ravens and the Patriots was a great game. The Ravens did fall short (by about 2 yards) but they made me care. I'll be honest, aside from watching the Packers play every week I don't really care about the NFL regular season like I should. I just get sick of seeing the Patriots on every single Sunday and Monday night games, but if nothing else Monday's game made me care.

I found myself sitting on my futon rooting for the Ravens to win. Which was weird because I thought that I didn't care. I realized that I don't really want the Patriots to go undefeated. I'm not sure why, but I just don't. However, I do really believe that they will go undefeated, although their best shot at a loss is going to be at home against the Steelers this weekend.

As far as the game goes I admit, I only tuned in for the 4th quarter, but it was well worth my time. I was very impressed with Tom Brady. He was cool, calm, and collected and I really liked how he scrambled to pick up that pivotal first down late in the game. As far as the Jabar Gaffney's winning TD goes, it was a great pass but I don't think that he had complete control of the ball before going out of bounds. However, given that the call on the field was a TD I think the right thing to do was to have the play stand because there was NOT irrefutable visual evidence in support of it being incomplete.

The complaining about the officials was a bit too much for me to handle though. The holding call late in the game was legitimate, as was the timeout that Brian Billick called was legitimate too, although not timely. While the Gaffney call was debatable the defense on him wasn't very good anyways. People are failing to realize that even if that hail mary would have gone for a TD, Kevin Dyson was all over Patriot defenders throwing them aside, so it would have been pass interference anyways.

The Ravens played their hearts out, especially on defense. They just made too many mistakes. They were penalized far too much in the game and they just unraveled at the end (especially Bart Scott - fine pending).I thought ESPN's Monday Night Football announcers were annoying again, especially Tony Kornheuser, who openly rooted for his fantasy of a Baltimore redemption.

Overall it was a great game. The Patriots are still undefeated which makes for great drama down the road and best of all....I care again!

Sorry for the lackluster review of the game but I've got to go do some studying. Let me know what you thought of the game as well as the pivotal calls made down the stretch.