Friday, November 30, 2007

What an offseason

Hey TSF readers, I am back to lay some more baseball insight into this fine fine blog. Back in July I wrote a post judging the trade deadline deals, and I'm back to look at what has gone on this offseason so far, and what could potentially take place.

Santana Mania
We all know that the best pitcher to throw a baseball since Roger Clemens was in his prime is on the market, but where will Johan Santana end up? This whole situation is about to get very interesting, because not only are the Red Sox and Yankees the only realistic options out there, but no one knows if they're actually trying to trade for Johan or just jacking up the price for the other team.

I say that the Yankees and Sox are the only real contenders because unlike anyone else on the current trade market, Johan Santana controls his own destiny. He can veto a trade if the team the Twins agree to terms with doesn't give him the extension he wants (rumored at around 23-25 million per year for 5-6 years). This makes this trade difficult in two ways - sure the Angels and Dodgers have the prospects to get a deal done, but they then have to sign Johan to a long term deal. If I were to guess, the Yankees eventually cave in and give up Ian Kennedy AND Philip Hughes, with Melky Cabrera and another minor leaguer (possibly Eric Duncan?) and get Johan. Trading that many prospects is completely against Theo Epstein's and Brian Cashman's philosophy, but the difference will be that Cashman isn't running the show anymore, and Theo is.

WTF White Sox?
What in the world were the White Sox thinking in giving Scott Linebrink that ridiculous contract? No one knows, but what we do know is that it has skyrocketed the reliever's market, and that is shown by Francisco Cordero's contract with the Reds. My prediction: They work out for a year, and then the contracts become albatross's hanging around both team's necks for the remainder of them. Thanks for setting back baseball a few years Kenny Williams.

Twins get a bat, Rays get an arm
Yes the Twinkies finally got another bat to stick in the lineup I like to call M&M and 7 random guys. Morneau and Mauer power that offense now that the Angels overpaid for ANOTHER aging center fielder (let's not forget Gary Matthews Jr.'s ridiculous contract from last year) when they signed away Torii Hunter. The problem is, Mauer doesn't hit for power, and while Cuddyer has been solid, they stil found their offense to be anemic at times even with Hunter having a contract year. Delmon Young will be for real, and he will help the Twins for however long he can keep his head on.
I still give this trade to the Rays, however, because the shortstops traded in this trade dramatically favors the Rays, and the prospect the Rays got will eventually be a solid 10th or 11th arm in the bullpen. The two players the Twins got back are bench players at best. Matt Garza also isn't too shabby, and I think Garza and Kazmir will make a solid 1-2 punch for the Rays.

Really LAA?
I already mentioned my thoughts on this signing above, but I will say this: If Torii Hunter is worth 90 million over 5 years, I'm good for about 750,000 over 3, and I didn't even play baseball my senior year of high school.

Cabrera Sweepstakes
Not since the Clippers and the Lakers fought to sign Shaq have two L.A. teams fought for the right to complain about how overweight a player on their roster is. Eating habits aside, Cabrera is a STUD, and while the Dodgers and Angels are being leveraged against each other by the Marlins (ask the LA Angels' owner how he feels about that), I think the Angels come out on top. Another reason why the Angels don't get Johan - they will trade their prospects to get Cabrera.

With so much happening so far this offseason (I didn't even delve into the Yankees re-signings drama), this offseason has promised to be a great one. When was the last time we saw two teams trade top prospect for top prospect like the Rays and Twins did? And when was the last time THIS MUCH top pitching talent has been available (make the right offer, the A's will give you Joe Blanton and Cy Young runner-up Dan Haren). As a baseball enthusiast, I am loving this offseason, and with the Winter Meetings around the corner, it should just get even better.


Anonymous said...

Garza and Kazmir as a 1-2 punch? Did you totally forget about James Shields. Garza is the 3rd best arm by far.

This trade was straight up even or actually slightly towards the Twins because Delmon Young is sick.

Stefan Ming said...

Great post! TSF needed a quality baseball post like this. Thanks again for the guest posting.

stephen a said...

Yeah I think the trade favors the Twins. I think youre vastly overrating Bartlett. Plus as BP says the deal is won by who got the best player most of the time, and that's the Twins. Also, just a nitpick but in no way shape or form will Eric Duncan get traded, you're more valuable than he is.