2010 Final Four Predictions

Kansas, West Virginia, Duke and BYU will make the Final Four. Yes, that's right. BYU will make the Final Four. I said it. I got a great feeling they will take down Kansas State in the 2nd round and head to Salt Lake City; Where they would then be the favorite in the regional to advance to Indy.

Here me out with my analysis of why BYU and the others will make it:

Every single Final Four team ever participated in the tournament the year before. So that eliminates Kentucky and Kansas State. Every single Final Four team since 1999 (When the rankings started) finished in the Top 25 for defensive efficiency (which computes ppg, fg %, etc). That eliminates Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Maryland, New Mexico, and Baylor.

So the east bracket comes down to Kansas and Ohio State. OSU isn't deep at all and depends A LOT on Evan Turner. I'll take Kansas.

With Kansas St. being eliminated in the West it comes down to Syracuse and BYU. I think BYU will take down Kansas St with Jimmer Fredette and will be motivated to play in Salt Lake. Syracuse vs. BYU in Salt Lake. Who knows how healthy Onawaku will be and BYU has good size. Advantage BYU.

In the South Nova and Baylor are eliminated for defensive reasons. Purdue is without star Robbie Hummel, so by default Duke advances.

In the East Kentucky is too inexperienced/young. New Mexico is already eliminated. Wisconsin doesn't have the firepower offensively to advance. West Virginia will move on because of their defense, athleticism, and size.

So there you have it. Those four teams including BYU will make the Final Four. Mark it.

College Basketball Talk: 2/17

Hey guys. Long time no blogging. We've been lagging behind on updating TSF but we're promising to get things going again especially with March Madness coming up. Here's a few thoughts on the NCAA Tournament and College Hoops in general.

Tourney Sleepers

Ohio State
They're peaking at the right time. Evan Turner should be Big Ten player of the year. They have a solid starting five. Turner is a tough match-up, Jon Diebler is a deadly shooter, David Light is finally coming into his own and Dallas Lauderdale is tough down low.

Butler
The Bulldogs haven't lost a game since December. They match-up well with a lot of power conference teams. Gordon Hayward and Matt Howard down low is one of the best one-two front court punches in the nation.

Richmond
The Spiders have a good back court lead by Kevin Anderson. They have great size at each position. They're also battle tested, playing a tough non-conference schedule which included: Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Florida, and Wake Forest.

Baylor
Nobody should want to play the Bears in the tourney. They're extremely athletic and have great guard play. They'll be a tough match up for just about anybody.

Kansas State
This team has played well on the road and on neutral courts. That's always a good indicator of a great team. They have two quality guards in Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen. The front court isn't terrible either.

BYU
They have tremendous size and a great scorer in Jimmer Fredette. This is a team that could make a huge run if they get into the Salt Lake City Bracket.

Overrated

Texas
Texas will probably not make it past the Sweet 16. Especially if they're not in the Houston bracket. They have no true point guard. Dogus Balbay makes mistakes and is afraid to shoot. Plus they rely too heavily on their 3 frosh.

Duke
Once they play a more athletic team they'll struggle. They also struggle on the road. They're 4-4 playing away from Cameron. The front court is improved from past seasons, but the Devils will once again fail to make another Final Four.

Georgia Tech
Tech has arguably the best talent in the country. But talent only gets you so far. They're point guard play has been lackluster and Derrick Favors is very limited offensively. Plus, they're young. They remind me of last years Wake Forest team; a lot of talent, little experience. They'll bow out early in the tourney.

My Final Four as of now:
Kansas
Kentucky
Michigan State
Purdue

Bracket Talk: 2/23

We're gonna talk some bracketology today and some thoughts about NCAA Tournament teams.

Final Four Projections (As of today):

Pittsburgh Panthers
Why they'll make it:
They're coming off an impressive road win vs. UConn. They play strong, physical defense. They have depth and experience to go along with solid guard play with DeJuan Blair and Sam Young in the frontcourt.

Why they won't make it:
Every single Final Four team ever, has been a strong 3-point shooting team. Pittsburgh isn't very consistent from deep. When they're on from the outside, they are a damn good team. When they're not, they can be exposed. If they're not hitting their threes against a top power conference team in the Big Dance, they'll be done for.

North Carolina Tar Heels
Why they'll make it:
UNC is dangerous. They have a lot of talent and good experience. This team made it to last years Final Four and that should help with this years tourney run. They have the best frontcourt depth in the nation now with Tyler Zeller back. Ty Lawson is arguably the best PG in the country and Wayne Ellington is their strike-dead shooter. Depth is lacking, but they have enough to get over the hump.

Why they won't make it:
UNC's overall depth will be tested deep in the tournament. It isn't nearly as deep as last years team, but once they run into an equally talented team with better quality depth (Like Kansas in the Final Four last year) they'll lose. Defense is a concern as well. Perimeter defense needs to be shored up.

Connecticut Huskies
Why they'll make it
They're extremely talented and have great depth. One of the best defenses in the country and they pose match-up problems for a lot of teams; not many can bang down low with Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien is long and physical, and AJ Price is a quick and great decision-making point man. They won't give you many extra scoring opportunities because they're the best rebounding team out there.

Why they won't make it:
The loss of Jerome Dyson. UConn looked destined for the Final Four before Dyson went down with a torn MCL. Now they'll need Kemba Walker and Craig Austrie to step up and provide some scoring help. This hurt their depth quite a bit and it may have screwed up their scheme.

Memphis Tigers
Why they'll make it
Memphis is talented and experienced. Plus, they play exceptional defense. They're physical and they'll get in your face. Tyreke Evans is not your typical PG.; He can dominate you at any time. Their frontcourt can play with anybody with Shawn Taggart and Robert Dozier. Experience will help them as well.

Why they won't make it:
Offense can be stagnant at times. Once they go up against a team that is just as strong defensively and match-up with them individually, they could have some trouble putting up points. Also, as in every year, lack of competition in C-USA will hurt them.

Final Four Sleepers:
Villanova
Watch out for the Wildcats. They're experienced and have some good guard depth. Dante Cunningham is the most improved big in the nation. Plus, they can shoot it from deep and make you pay for your mistakes.

Marquette
Another team with great guard play. Their guards have been around awhile and they can shoot as well. They're not very big, but their defense and quickness will help make up for that.

Arizona St.
Don't sleep on the Sun Devils. They may not be very deep, but they have a stellar 1-2 punch with James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph. Plus, the defense is pretty strong.

Michigan St.
If Raymar Morgan stays healthy and can regain his oldself, the Spartans will be dangerous. Izzo always gets the best out of his teams in March.

Purdue
The Boilermakers haven't done much without Robbie Hummel, but if he can stay healthy they're a real threat. They nearly made the Elite 8 last year with virtually the same squad. They're talented, versatile, long, and athletic.

Xavier
This team has been there done that. They made it to the Elite 8 last year and the 2nd round two years ago. They have 3 starters back from those two teams and the depth is even better.

Overall Sleepers
Siena
They have everybody back from last years 2nd round team. They'll be dangerous after playing a tough schedule.

Creighton
The Jays are a well-known squad and they play in a good enough league to give them some competition for the tourney. They shoot the 3-ball well and they also defend well too.

UNLV
The Rebs have been inconsistent lately, but they're experienced. Wink Adams may be one of the most underappreciated guards out there. They're a well-coached squad and their top players have been there before.

West Virginia
WVA returns a lot of players from last years Elite 8 team. Bob Huggins is a terrific coach and WVA always seems to give match-up problems to teams in the tournament. This team is battle-tested and they can hang with anybody.

South Carolina
SC could sneak up on some people. They're one of the fastest teams in the country and they like to get out and run when they can. Devan Downey is a top-notch guard and has the ability to catch fire from the outside.

Stephen F. Austin
This is a well-balanced team overall. They have scorers and play tough, physical defense.

North Dakota State
This is probably the most experienced team in the country with 4 fifth-year senior starters. They've played in some big games and have gotten some big wins. They can score and they rank pretty high in some offensive statistics nationally. Ben Woodside is a very good guard for them.

Western Kentucky
They play in a formidable league and they lost in the Sweet 16 last season. Some of those players are back, including AJ Slaughter. This team is dangerous from the outside.

Projecting the Seeds

Quick projections on how the top four seeds will look like in the NCAA Tournament and what region they will end up in.

Joe Lunardi's got nothing on me...

Region by Region:

Boston:
1. Connecticut- overall 1 seed
2. Duke
3. Memphis
4. Gonzaga

Indianapolis:
1. North Carolina
2. Pittsburgh
3. Xavier
4. Arizona St.

Memphis:
1. Michigan St.
2. Wake Forest
3. Marquette
4. Texas

Glendale:
1. Oklahoma
2. Louisville
3. UCLA
4, Purdue

If this were the case, here would be my Final Four predictions from the regions...

UConn, UNC, Michigan St., and Louisville

Final Four Predictions

East

Louisville Cardinals
They are a little under the radar right now; they're healthy and they have great guard play. Their guard depth will prevail, plus David Padgett is one of the best big men in the country and if he gets into foul trouble, they still have Derrick Caracter.

Midwest

Georgetown Hoyas
The Hoyas have nearly everyone back from a team that lost in the Final Four last season. They have the guards to play with anyone and the best big man in the country in Roy Hibbert. Plus, they have one of the best defenses in the country. They'll make you play their game, they'll wear you down, plus they have depth.

South

Memphis Tigers
The Tigers have been to the Elite 8 the past two seasons and this is finally the year they get over the hump and into the Final Four. They're so talented and deep. I think they'll make enough free throws to help them win some games.

West

UCLA Bruins
The Bruins have the most tourney experience than any other team. They finally have a premier post presence which is something they lacked the past few seasons. I love their guard play and they play stellar defense.

Finals:
UCLA over Louisville
Louisville is my sleeper pick, but UCLA gets it done this season. Kevin Love will be the main factor in the Bruins winning the title this season.

Never too Early for Brackets

I stumbled across some articles on Yahoo and Rivals. Rivals has an early predictions bracket for which teams will make it and what seed they will be. They have a few more articles about teams on the rise and bubble teams. I always love predictions on the NCAA Tournament, it just gets me more excited and eager for March Madness.

I would like to give a few predictions and some insight myself.

Darkhorse Final Four Candidates you could easily pass up:
Arizona
Washington St.
Butler
Xavier
Louisville
Gonzaga
Marquette

My current Final Four Predictions: *(Subject to Change)
Memphis
Michigan St.
UCLA
Georgetown

Mid-Majors to keep an eye on:
Butler
Xavier
Drake
Rhode Island
UMass
Dayton
St. Mary's
VCU
Davidson
Oral Roberts

Gator Nation Continues to Loom Large

The University of Florida Gators basketball team became the first team since 1992 to repeat as champs. They also added to what has become quite a collegiate sports dynasty; having won basketball ('05-'06), Football ('06), and Basketball again in the last year. Although I was really pulling for Ohio St. I wasn't really surprised at all.

Oden had a huge game and dominated the Gators' 3-man rotation of bigmen from start to finish. Florida really thrived off the 3-ball though, and that's what really made the difference. Ohio St. couldn't really make a 3 to save their life.Overall it was a pretty entertaining game. It just kind of disgusts me to see Florida dominate the sports world like this, but I guess I'll just have to get over it.

Mike Conley Jr. didn't have a great game but I still feel like this tournament has catapulted him to the highest tier of PGs in the game. I think it will be really interesting to see what he and Oden do for next year. They both could easily go and both even be lottery picks. However, I would not be surprised at all if they both stayed. Rumor has it that Oden is already enrolled in a few classes next year and has made verbal commentary on staying for another season. I think regardless of what they do they will follow eachother. I just don't see one going and the other staying. If they stay Ohio St. will just be absolutely stacked next year.

Since we're on the topic of leaving for the draft I think you can look for a majority of the Gators team going to the draft. I think Brewer, Horford, Noah, and Green will all leave for the draft and probably get picked pretty high. I think Horford is a top 6 pick for sure, and Brewer and Noah are probably top 10. I also think that their 6th man Richard has a shot to get drafted. With that many kids leaving both from graduation and to the draft it will be truly interesting to see if Billy Donovan opts out for another job - cough, Kentucky, cough-.

So as they Gator chomped in celebration they took a giant bite out of the college basketball record books. Not only as the first team to repeat since '92 but also as the first team to hold both the football and basketball championships at the same time, and honestly they very well may be the only school to ever accomplish this. At least for a long, long time. Now starts the debate...where does this team stack up against the best and most talented of all time? I'm going to leave that up to you, so drop a comment and let me know your opinion.

Final Four React + Links for Your Reading Pleasure

And then there were 2..... Personally I am just a bit disgusted by the fact that Ohio St. and Florida both got to be in the football and basketball championships but oh well. I guess it just really rocks to be a Gator fan or Buckeye fan this year! Anyways, I have to work tomorrow morning so I'm going to let you know what I thought of the games and hit you with some links from some blogs that I frequently view.

Well we didn't see it coming. UCLA looked pretty weak against Florida. That was actually just a really crappy game to watch. I basically zoned out for the 2nd half. Georgetown vs. Ohio St. was a good game it just didn't go as I had figured. I thought Gtown had the components to be NCAA Champs this year. Not only did they beat them by seven but they did it with not a lot of Oden. That is what really impresses me. Georgetown could never take control of the game when Oden went out, even with Hibbert on the floor. When Hibbert was out, the Hoyas were simply lost. Also, Mike Conley continues to impress me. How valuable and underappreciated is this guy!?

It's getting late and I'm tired so here are some links to enjoy Sunday morning:

A day in the life........[Complete Sports] - STRONGLY RECOMMEND

Durant gets player of the year [Going Deep] - However apparently not consensus

Travel Plans [The Sports Dad]

Peer Pressure Takes its Toll [One More Dying Quail]

Serena's heckling problem & Pig fooey [FNSports]

Talking Fantasy College Football at a Time Like This!? [Pre Pro Sports Blog]

Enjoy your Sunday and we'll hit you with a National Championship Preview tonight. Drop a comment and let me know what you thought of the games Saturday night.

Final Four Breakdown

The Final Four is here and we have some great match ups ahead of us this Saturday and it should be a dandy. I am really looking forward to it. There are a handful of premier big men playing which should make it that much more exciting to watch. But anyways, here's some analysis and predictions on the games.

Ohio St. vs. Georgetown
Oden vs Hibbert
This is the match up I have been most anticipating. You have 7'0 Greg Oden vs 7'2 Roy Hibbert. Great match up overall. But this is where I give the advantage to Georgetown. I think Hibbert can control Oden down low and hold his own against him. Hibbert is the most physical post player in the country and I think he will out work and definitely out rebound Oden down low. Oden must stay out of foul trouble because they have no one else to guard Hibbert or even Patrick Ewing Jr. for that matter.

Also, OSU has no match for Jeff Green. They can definitely hold Hibbert down low. But who's going to stop Green? Green outmatches every other Buckeye. If they stick an undersized guard on him he will abuse him all over the court. If they put Ivan Harris or even Othello Hunter on him, he will be able to slash and take them to the rack all day. Georgetown's front court is going to provide some big problems for OSU, especially if Oden gets into foul trouble.

OSU has the edge in the back court. They have multiple options with their guards, so does G'Town, but the Buckeyes G's have a little more talent. Mike Conley is a phenomenal PG, he is most effective in the open floor, and he'll get those opportunities only if Georgetown commits a lot of turnovers or has a horrible shooting night; which is doubtful that will happen. But with Conley, Lewis, Cook, Butler, and Lighty, OSU has the ability to take it to Georgetown's G's, if they can pressure them and force them to put up bad shots they can definitely top the Hoyas.

The Pick: Georgetown- Their defense has been tremendous. They're just too big and physical for the Buckeyes. Don't forget their holding opponents to just a little under 40% field goal shooting. Georgetown will easily dictate their own tempo and should handle them well in a half court game.

Florida vs. UCLA
It's the rematch of last years national title game. I think defense is going to be the biggest factor in this game. Both teams have played stellar defense in the tournament thus far. I don't expect the game to be as one-sided as it was last year, only because UCLA is a more experienced team.

Starting with the front court, Florida has a huge advantage here. UCLA's undersized posts have played bigger teams in this tournament well (i.e. Kansas & Pittsburgh). But, Al Horford has been amazing and has produced awesome numbers in guiding the Gators to Atlanta. Don't forget about Joakim Noah who has played well and UCLA needs to contain him Saturday night. Florida also has post depth off the bench, so if Horford or Noah get in any kind of foul trouble, it won't be a huge deal.

I love the back court match ups with Taurean Green, Lee Humphery, and Corey Brewer of Florida vs the likes of Aaron Afflalo, Josh Shipp, Darren Collison, and Michael Roll of UCLA. Both are evenly balanced and I can't really give an edge to either. But I think the X-Factor here is Darren Collison. Afflalo has been a stud lately and he needs someone else to step up too. Collison with his defense can pressure and contain Green and/or Humphery. If he can get them to force some tough shots and get them a little flustered UCLA will have a great chance at winning this game.


The Pick: UCLA- The play of Afflalo and the other guards has been amazing. I think UCLA's guards, especially Afflalo and Collision, can outperform Florida's. Also, defense will be a huge key and UCLA has been impressing many with their solid play on both ends of the court.

You should also check out some predictions and analysis from Complete Sports. I also encourage you to vote in our Final Four poll.

March Madness Rolls/Skates On

As March Madness rolls on there's been a lot of great action on both the ice and the hardwood this weekend. And as we speak arguably the greatest month in all of sports is coming to a climax. Let's regroup...

Ohio St. and UCLA punched their tickets to the Final Four Saturday. Also Michigan St. and Maine booked theirs to the Frozen Four. A few things really either surprised me or stuck out to me here:

• I was really surprised that Ohio St. was not only able to win but to really run away with it at the end. I mean, they really made this score look ugly
  
• The talented Jayhawks club being so unable to respond. I picked UCLA to win, but I figured that the Jayhawks wouldn't just die like that. Watch out now...because Bill Self is quickly becoming into that coach with lots of talent who "Can't win the Big-game". Actually thus far he can't even get there...
  
• Maine was the first team to punch a ticket to the Frozen Four in St. Louis...This came as a bit of a surprise to me and definitely not in my predictions.


• Thus far the Frozen Four tournament has seemingly had more upsets than the Bball tourney.....who'da thunk it!


• Oden really stepped it up after a horrible game in the sweet sixteen against Tenn...I'm guessing he felt he had something to prove.


• So, with Notre Dame losing to Michigan State that means that 3 of the 4 #1 seeds are out of the Frozen Four Tourney after just 2 days of play..once again my predictions never foresaw such an abundance in upsets! But you still gotta love it.
  
• The UND Fighting Sioux beat Michigan, as predicted, 8-5. Yea I thought they'd win, and as the highest-scoring team in the country I knew Michigan could light it up but I never imagined 13 goals! A lot of people are going to try to pin some "bad goaltending" on Lamoureux but I'm putting it on the Defense. If it weren't for some tough saves on Lamoureux's part you may have seen Michigan hit double-digits.
  
• Afflalo played quite a bit better for UCLA than did most of the more-talented Kansas starters (in my opinion). Afflalo is a great college player and may win a championship this year, but I think there are a lot of guys on the Kansas starting 5 who will make better pro's. Any thoughts?
  
• I will be out of town until late tuesday so Stefan will be in charge for the next few days. You can expect to hear from me on Wed.

Alright, as a Sioux fan I have to do a quick plug. The UND Fighting Sioux will face-off against the Minnesota Golden Gophers tomorrow in what looks to be the game of the tournament (in my opinion anyways). The puck drops at 5 o'clock. You should all tune in because this one is a dandy.

I feel like this game really could go either way. They both play each other really tough and have exchanged blows all year long. But I think the Sioux can win this one, not because I'm biased or will be screaming my lungs out in support or anything. But rather because I was surprised at Minnesota's near 1st round meltdown to Air Force. It had me thinking Holy Cross all over again! And because the Sioux have been really excited about getting a rematch after the tough loss just last week in the WCHA championship and they're ready to stick it to em'. Regardless of who wins this game I think either team would have a cakewalk to the championship.

So, the moral of the story is:

Give College Hockey a chance
Watch the rest of the Elite 8 games tomorrow
Enjoy March because it is amazing
annnnnnnnnd..........GO SIOUX!